Expert: Wave Your Sleeves And Bid Farewell To The Low Salary Era.

"Lewis turning point" is approaching a turning point in the growth of wage income. China will face the continuous rise of the low end labor costs in the next few years, thus forming a forced mechanism for China's economic transformation.

The wage surge is likely to become a turning point in the era of low labor returns in China. In my opinion, salary increase can be regarded as a normal supplement to the "scissors difference" between labor prices and labor productivity in China for a long time. Wage growth and labor efficiency growth are out of sync with China's economic structural imbalance. China's economy should go from imbalance to balance. In essence, it is necessary to bridge the gap between labor productivity growth and wage income growth.

In the past ten years, China's economy has maintained a high growth rate, but the share of labor remuneration in GDP has shown a downward trend. 1997 -2007 Labor remuneration The share of GDP dropped from 52.7% to 39.74%, down by nearly 13 percentage points. At the same time, capital gains accounted for GDP, rising to 30.6% in 2006. The proportion of laborers' remuneration in GDP in developed countries is roughly 65% to 80%. China is not only lower than that of all developed countries, but also lower than that of the middle developed countries.

Over the past ten years, with the rapid economic growth, technological innovation, talent and capital intensive, China has been developing rapidly. manufacturing industry Labour productivity has also increased significantly, with labour productivity increasing from 20.8% to 13.2% in 1994 to 2008, while wages in the manufacturing sector increased by 13.2% during the same period. Compared with most countries, the labor cost of our country is still very low, and the price of labor still has room for improvement. Compared with the developed countries, the labor productivity of the second industry in China is equivalent to that of 1/16 in the UK, but the wages of employees are only 1/24, while the labor productivity is equivalent to that of the US 1/15, but the wage level is 1/20, and the labor productivity is equivalent to that of Japan's 1/16, but the wage level is 1/19. Compared with the emerging countries, China's labor rate is equivalent to 1/4 in Korea, while the wage level is 1/9. Compared with India, which belongs to the "BRICs", China's labor productivity is about 3 times that of India, but the wage level is 2 times more than that of China.

current Macro economy The contradictions in the market are essentially the reflection of the imbalance of the factor market. They are the reflection of the low remuneration of the labor factor and the high return of capital and other factors. Therefore, we must solve the problem from the labor force factor market. However, it is still very difficult to make fundamental adjustments to the remuneration of labor.

The trigger mechanism of wage inflation spiral is conditional, that is, the monetary wage increase exceeds the growth rate of labor productivity. Generally speaking, when the real wages and actual labor productivity increase synchronously, the increase of labor cost will be completely digested by the higher output of labor force, thus the labor cost and profit share the total output ratio. The growth rate of nominal wages should be equivalent to the increase of actual labor productivity plus inflation rate. As long as labor productivity and wage increase synchronously or slightly higher than wage increases, wage inflation will not generate inflation or squeeze profit margins.

According to Japan's experience, after the "Lewis turning point" and the wage level rise, the labor productivity of Japanese manufacturing industry has been generally improved, and the average productivity of manufacturing industry in the 70s of last century has reached 10%. Moreover, there is also a structural transformation within the manufacturing sector, and the low end manufacturing industry is facing a transformation to high-end manufacturing. For example, in the 20 years from 1970 to 2000, the added value of Japanese textile industry accounted for 5.5% of the value added of manufacturing industry to 1.3%. On the contrary, with the application of new technology, the high-end manufacturing industry has been developing rapidly. In the same period, the added value of the electrical machinery industry increased from 11% to 16%, and the proportion of metal products, general equipment and electronic equipment continued to improve, which smoothly realized the upgrading and transformation of the industry.

Therefore, the reduction of the scissors gap between wage increases and labor efficiency will not only cause the slowdown of China's economic growth, but will form a new driving force, so that China will gradually disappear while facing Lewis turning point and the first "demographic dividend". As a result of wage level rising, human capital accumulation and labor productivity increasing, economic development results will transform economic sustainable growth and shared growth through the promotion of human capital formation.