Stock Market Outlook: Realization Of "Stable And Steady" Market Operation Pattern

In terms of restraining asset bubbles and continuing deleveraging, both the stock market and the property market have experienced a gradual decline in the probability of a year-round surge and plummeting, and the continued decline in volatility is also expected.

In other words, in the current "stable" market environment, coupled with the current market overall systemic risk has been suddenly reduced the background, if the stock market appears to adjust the trend of stepping back, may not be terrible, may provide a more secure investment in the medium and long-term capital allocation point.

As for the market situation in 2016, excluding the impact of the fusing mechanism at the beginning of the year, the stock market basically showed a stable and rising pattern throughout the year, and the volatility of the stock market suddenly dropped.

After entering the 16 quarter of the three quarter, the market situation showed signs of accelerating, and under the influence of the full activation of venture capital funds, Shanghai stock market hit 3301.21 highs in 16 November 29th, and created a daily turnover of 348 billion 100 million yuan in Shanghai stock market.

With the gradual extinction of venture capital funds, the focus of the operation of the market dropped significantly, and in January 16th 17, the 3044.29 lowest point was achieved.

At the same time, compared with the Shanghai stock market, the performance of the Shenzhen stock market is even weaker, and the gem index is close to the new low level.

The recovery of the market since the middle and late 17 and 1 months, on the one hand, has benefited from the moderate recovery of the external environment of the market; on the other hand, it has benefited from some moderate and long-term stability.

With the gradual admission and the intensive holdings of industrial capital, the stock market ushered in a turning point.

As for the Shenzhen market, its index is still under the pressure of the long line in December 12th last year, and it seems that it has not got rid of the downward trend of the trend in essence.

"Shanghai strong and deep weak" is a true portrayal of the recent market situation.

At the same time, it also benefits from the joint efforts of some periodic weight plates, and some of them are new.

The strong rise has played a very significant role in the whole market.

However, as the market approaches the early stage of intensive holding up areas, the market is hot and lax, and the lack of sustained leading sector leveraging has led to a trend of market closing.

As for the market more concerned about the quantity of energy indicators, there is a continuous shrinking state. At present, the average daily volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities can still linger at 500 billion yuan level, and the two growth rate representing the new fund attitude is basically in a stagnating pattern.

As a result, when the market is close to the tightly held area and is close to the top 3301 points, the longer the market concussion and concussion will tend to weaken the momentum of the market, and may gradually become a double top.

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This is perhaps the most worrying issue for investors.

However, from the morphological analysis, the trend of Shanghai stock market is doubtful at the top, but it does not belong to the double roof in real sense. It still needs a continuous confirmation process.

In the short term, if the short-term market is going to step back and step up again, and the pressure of 3301 higher before the breakthrough, it will greatly resolve the pressure of phased twin peaks, and the market is expected to enter new regional operation.

This is obviously something that the market is looking forward to.

For this year, in the context of inhibiting asset bubbles and deleveraging, the stock market remains "stable".

At the same time, for the current stock market, it still bears the burden of serving the real economy, and the demand for stock financing is also very strong.

However, in the environment of high financing density, the stock market environment with sustained investment vitality is needed as support. Once the stock market has a large downward trend, it often means that the stock market financing density has to be slowed down, and the expected flood discharge target of IPO barrier lake can not be completed within the prescribed time.

China's stock market is basically inseparable from the pattern of "Cheng Yi capital, losing money". From the current situation of the daily average turnover volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities, it also shows that when the foreign capital enters the market, hesitation may still be waiting for the establishment of a more effective right side opportunity, and then the medium and long-term investment layout will be made.

At the same time, investors should not be overly pessimistic at this time if the market trend is still lingering and choosing to go downwards to seek support.

For now, the construction of the stock market's two peaks is not easy to establish. For the current Chinese stock market, it pays more attention to the strong support of the policy bottom. The short term market falls too fast, and there may be a phenomenon of the national team's funds to protect the stock market, so as to reduce the pressure of the stock market going too fast.

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